fredag 8 februari 2008

These fast-moving times

The past two months have seen faster change in the economy than I can remember, ever. The warning shot was the Northern Rock collapse and it has proved to be the tip of an iceberg of banking malpractice underpinned by economic mismanagement.

Some commentators, such as Fred Harrison, suggest that the trough will occur in 2010. If he is right, and he has an excellent record of accurate prediction, what has been happening is just the beginning of an unravelling of long-established economic structures.

There seems to be an cycle of about 18 years, and if one goes with that, the trough will come in two years' time. But this trough will be accompanied by problems with energy, probably with the approach of "Peak Oil" and growing consumption in India and China, and difficulties with economic development inside China, which will compound the effects.

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