onsdag 19 mars 2008

The coming crash and the slump of 2028

Day after day the newspapers are full of reports about problems with the banks. The £ continues to fall. The US dollar likewise. Every few days another skeleton falls out of the cupboard. This is the beginning of the next big crash. Some commentators say that it will be worse than 1929. I would not go so far as to suggest that but will not be surprised.

On 16 September last year I wrote ON THE ROCKS, about the Northern Rock collapse and THIS about the likely consequences.

It gives me no pleasure to see the predictions coming to pass. This is no mere crisis of confidence but something happening in the real economy. Expect to see vacant sites, boarded-up shops, closed factories, growing unemployment and all the other marks of a full-blown depression. It was all avoidable. Indeed, any country following the right policies could have spared itself much of the misery. But the time to act would have been ten years ago.

The right policies applied now could get any country that did so into recovery quite quickly, but to prevent the slump of 2028 the time to act is between now and 2018, after which it too will be inevitable. But if the comments being made by politicians and journalists are indicative of the general state of understanding of what is happening, it would be prudent to pencil in the date of the next recession after this one.

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