tisdag 21 juni 2016

Listen to Soros - vote Remain

I am sure George Soros (or should it be Tsures - צאָרעס, the word means "misery") has everyone's interests at heart when he urges people to vote Remain, but how many other people appreciate that? Soros warns that "The Brexit crash will make you all poorer.".

Wouldn't politicians and other commentators who are so widely mistrusted do better to keep quiet if they want people to do what they say? Or do they not even realise that they are not trusted. Anyway, here is the link to his piece, but you will not be allowed to comment.

However, his reasoning is interesting, since by implication he suggests that Brexit would remedy some of the long standing weaknesses of the British economy. First, he predicts a fall in house prices, a bubble value if ever there was one. Second, he refers to the drying-up of capital inflows - which have been a major factor in the large-scale purchase of UK real estate by foreign "investors", particularly residential property in London, an influx of finance which has helped to make housing in London unaffordable for people working in London.

A third point, which is not altogether congruent with the other two, is his projected fall in the value of the pound, which he predicts could go as low as 1 € to the £. If this were to happen, British producers would enjoy an immediate and substantial competitive advantage. Euroland countries might then apply protectionist measures to punish their own people by depriving them of lower-cost UK goods. However, a lower £ would give a boost British tourism and other invisibles, eventually driving sterling back up again. In the meantime, British firms would be able to make use of their other competitive advantages - the English language and proximity to ports - to develop trade outside the EU - ie most of the rest of the world. Outside Europe, British consumers would also gain access to food outside the tariff wall.

I wonder how much Soros stands to lose from a Brexit vote?

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